Who’s Afraid of Polish Election Pledges? Not JPMorgan or Allianz

The opposition Law & Justice, leading opinion polls ahead of the Oct. 25 vote, has pledged to increase family subsidies and reduce the retirement age, measures the Finance Ministry says could double the budget deficit. Yet the same party during its previous stint in power until 2007 cut the budget gap to 1.9 percent of economic output, the lowest level in at least two decades.

“We are very confident that they will trim some of their pledges because in the past, when they were in office, they proved to be fiscally prudent,” said Michael Marrese, the head of emerging-market economics and strategy for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London. The bank is overweight local-currency Polish bonds.