Russia’s Ailing Consumers Keep Door Open for Nabiullina to Ease

While Governor Elvira Nabiullina has set a course for monetary easing to match slowing inflation, policy makers last month paused their easing cycle for the first time in 2015. The scales may be tipping in the favor of another cut this year as Russia’s consumer economy continues to weaken. Data due Monday will show wages probably fell for an 11th month when adjusted for price growth, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

“There are strong disinflationary trends, including falling retail sales, vehicle sales, wages, and household debt,” Per Hammarlund, the chief emerging-markets strategist at SEB AB in Stockholm, said by e-mail. “This weakness will give plenty of room for the” central bank “to cut rates, as long as oil prices hold up.”